Counterpoint Research forecasts that global shipments of foldable smartphones will exceed 100 million units (cumulatively) by the end of 2026. The jump is being driven by Apple’s first entry into the category with the expected foldable iPhone Ultra, alongside continued momentum from names like Samsung and Huawei.
Apple’s Forecasted Market Share and Impact
Even though Apple is a newcomer to the foldable phone scene, it’s projected to ship about 6 million units of its debut foldable this year. That would give it roughly 25% of the foldable segment in 2026—enough to take second place globally behind Samsung (38%) and just ahead of Huawei (22%). By 2027, its share could surge to nearly 40%, potentially surpassing Samsung if Apple sustains strong demand and scales up production.
Growth Trends and Form Factor Preferences
Foldables still represent only about 2% of all smartphone shipments, but growth is accelerating. Year-over-year gains are estimated at 24% for 2026 and 37% for 2027. A crucial factor in that growth is a shift toward wider “book” form factors—devices that open like a small tablet rather than fold like a flip phone. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 has helped set this trend, and upcoming models from Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo, and others are expected to further fuel interest in wide foldables.
Challenges and Supply Constraints
Supply is likely to be the limiting factor for Apple’s foldable debut. Initial production volumes are expected to lag demand due to setup and ramp-up constraints. Despite those early limitations, Apple’s entry is still expected to make a strong impression. Projections also point to Apple potentially capturing up to 40% market share in 2027, driven by full-year volume and broader availability of its foldable model.
Meanwhile, other brands aren’t standing still. Xiaomi officially unveiled its 18 Fold in China on September 7, adopting the wide book-style format similar to what Apple is expected to use for its foldable. Complementing the growing lineup, companies like Oppo, vivo, Honor and others are preparing foldables that align with shifting consumer preferences toward larger flexible displays.
Apple’s arrival in foldables marks a turning point. When foldable screens launched in 2019, they were niche curiosities. Now they’re entering a tipping point—premium devices, design innovation, and broader participation are pushing them toward mainstream relevance.
Analysis:Apple’s entrance into the foldable phone category could reshape the premium smartphone landscape. With strong forecasts placing the iPhone Ultra in second place globally in its very first year, competition over design, durability—especially crease technology—and supply chain finesse will matter more than ever. Success will hinge not just on capturing mindshare, but scaling production and delivering seamless user experience. What to watch: post-launch supply constraints, pricing details, and whether Apple can hold or surpass Samsung in 2027’s foldable market share race.
