For first-time venture fund managers in the U.S., 2026 has been especially harsh. So far through Q3, new firms have secured just about 4.5% of overall VC fundraising, while established funds (fourth fund or later) have scooped up 88.2% of it. Only 81 first-time funds closed by the end of September, placing the year on track to be the decade’s weakest for fresh VCs. (All data per PitchBook.)
Amid this tough landscape, Olaf Sakkers is pushing ahead. He launched RedBlue Capital in 2021 and closed its first fund with ~$5 million in commitments in 2023. Now, he’s announced a first close on a follow-on fund targeting at least $50 million. His strategy: lead with results, build tangible credibility, show performance.
From South Africa to Venture Trailblazer
Sakkers’ background includes growing up in South Africa, studying anthropology at Princeton—where his thesis focused on HIV policy—and later moving to Israel, serving in a liaison role with the U.S. military while developing an interest in autonomous tech. He cut his teeth in investing alongside Michael Granoff at Maniv Mobility, where he sourced deals in cybersecurity and the auto sector before branching out globally.
RedBlue’s focus is what Sakkers describes as backing “the real economy”—companies in robotics, logistics, manufacturing, and energy. Unlike high-volume investing, the fund writes small checks ($50,000 to $100,000), often joining rounds led by others. The goal: do more deals, play a supporting role, overdeliver on the non-capital side—warm intros, advisory, access to leads—and win trust.
Performance Under Pressure
To date, RedBlue has backed 28 startups. Of these, 15 have seen markups. Sakkers claims a net IRR “significantly above 50%,” though much of the value remains on paper, with just one exit so far (an acqui-hire). Notable portfolio companies include HappyRobot (Series C hit $1.2B valuation), Westmag (drone/robotics motors), Flai (AI tools for car dealerships), and Humble Robotics (driverless trucks)—each of which has raised large rounds subsequent to RedBlue’s early backing.
Behind the scenes, discipline and process form RedBlue’s backbone. Sakkers publishes detailed thesis essays, built a custom database (using tools like Claude Code) to track relationships, meetings and intros, and operates remotely—he and a single full-time principal in New York collaborate asynchronously. He emphasizes that AI tools are only useful if grounded in data, written down, organized; this separates him from more artisanal VCs that depend on long reputational histories.
LPs (limited partners) he’s courting include family offices and larger institutions. Their hurdles: small check sizes, perceived risk, and a preference for legacy managers. So RedBlue pitches more than returns—they pitch reliability. Their small check strategy means RedBlue often acts as the last investor in a round, promising the extra hands and network founders often crave but rarely receive.
What this means
enough performance, Sakkers believes, can overcome “gravity of perception”—the bias favoring well-known brands. While large funds dominate flow today, data from Carta shows that smaller funds ($1M–$10M) have consistently outperformed very large funds ($100M+) in recent vintages, in terms of total value to paid-in capital (TVPI). That’s the window RedBlue is aiming through.
Analytical Angle: Sakkers’ journey speaks to a larger shift in VC. As capital concentrates ever further into the hands of established firms, emerging managers must do something beyond promising—they need proof. RedBlue’s approach combines deep specialization in physical infrastructure and automation, highly disciplined process, and overdelivering on founder support. If his fund hits its $50M target and maintains above-benchmark performance, he could offer a blueprint for how new funds survive—and maybe even thrive—in one of venture’s most adversarial eras. What to watch: RedBlue’s exit record, how its LP base evolves, and whether other emerging managers adopt similar lean-but-high-quality plays.
