As Apple gears up to unveil its latest iPhone lineup on September 9, KeyBanc Capital Markets is warning that the event could have a bearish impact on Apple’s stock. The research firm cautions that pressure on pricing and profit margins may lead to investor concern around demand sustainability.
KeyBanc is highlighting a hard choice facing Apple: either uniformly increase prices to counter rising costs—which risks deterring buyers through “sticker shock”—or incrementally raise select model prices to try to strike a balance between margins and volume. The firm has kept an “Underweight” rating on Apple shares, and set a price target of $250 per share, compared to a trading price of about $325 at the time of the note.
Production Insights and Price Hikes
Within its forecasts, KeyBanc expects Apple to sell approximately 80 million units across its iPhone 18 portfolio during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027. That’s down from around 91 million units during the equivalent period last year. Much of this decline is blamed on Apple not offering a base iPhone 18 model in the early part of this launch cycle, though a richer mix of premium models and higher pricing could soften the downside.
KeyBanc projects that the new iPhone 18 Pro will carry a $150 price increase (landing at about $1,249), and the iPhone 18 Pro Max will rise by roughly $200 (around $1,399). Meanwhile, the company’s long-rumored foldable model, tentatively called the iPhone Ultra, is expected to start at a hefty $2,199.
Stock Reactions & Historical Patterns
An interesting trend outlined by KeyBanc: Apple shares often dip around its major product announcements. On average over the past five years, the stock has dropped about 0.72% on the day of an iPhone event, and nearly 1.22% over the five trading days following the announcement. With its “Surprise and Shine” event scheduled for 10 a.m. Pacific on September 9, the warning comes just in time for investors to brace for volatility.
This cycle’s challenges aren’t unique: higher component and manufacturing costs, chip shortages or disruptions, and shifting global demand have put pressure on margins across the tech sector. For Apple, the decision whether to pass on costs through price increases or absorb them—thereby reducing margins—could influence both the financials and how consumers perceive value.
What to watch post-event: how Apple frames its pricing strategy, whether sales forecasts evolve, and how investors respond around guidance for margin pressures. The broader consumer electronics market will also be listening to see if Apple’s moves set a precedent for how rivals like Samsung and Google balance price, volume, and feature expectations.
Analysis: This moment represents one of Apple’s more precarious balancing acts. Choosing price hikes risks alienating consumers amid economic uncertainty; resisting them erodes margin strength. Investors will be closely assessing whether Apple can maintain its premium brand status without compromising demand. The September 9 event could therefore mark not just a product reveal, but a test of Apple’s pricing power in an increasingly cost-constrained world.
