Apple’s latest flagship, the iPhone 18 Pro, has notably outsold its predecessor, the iPhone 17 Pro, in its initial weeks—but that jump in sales is almost entirely driven by booming demand in China. According to a recent report from Counterpoint Research, shipments of the 18 Pro in China during the first three weeks post-launch rose 29% year over year compared to the 17 Pro, helping lift global sales to an overall 3.1% gain. However, outside of China, demand remains uneven. Global strength for the device is masking regional struggles.
Strong Chinese demand helps offset weaker markets
In China, several tailwinds combined to push the iPhone 18 Pro ahead. Not only did Apple begin with higher inventory levels for the 18 Pro than it did for the 17 Pro, but local Android rivals raised prices, giving Apple a competitive edge. These factors together inflated early sales performance. Still, Counterpoint warns that it’s not yet clear whether this surge in China represents sustained interest or just front-loaded purchases from early adopters.
Swings and declines in the US, Japan, and other regions
Outside China, Apple’s performance is more mixed. In the United States, the iPhone 18 Pro saw a decline of around 4% in sales compared to the 17 Pro during the same initial period. Analysts point to weak incentives for US buyers to upgrade—unsurprising given year-over-year design and feature shifts are incremental. The launch of the separately released iPhone Duo may also be pulling purchase consideration away from the Pro models.
Japan proved even more challenging, with sales for the 18 Pro dropping about 27% relative to the 17 Pro. Contributing to that drop were higher device prices coupled with exchange rate effects, which increased cost burdens for consumers there. Meanwhile, the Pro Max version continues to dominate across all markets, accounting for 56% of iPhone Pro class purchases—only slightly behind last year’s 57% share.
Launch strategy and future risks
This year Apple shifted its rollout strategy, releasing the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the new iPhone Duo first, with the standard base iPhone 18 delayed until early 2027. Some analysts warn this delay could cost Apple potential sales that might never be recovered. Claims about Apple cutting Pro model orders have circulated, but major investment firms like JPMorgan have rejected those rumors.
Bottom line: China’s outsized demand has pushed the iPhone 18 Pro past the 17 Pro in global sales—just. But the performance outside China underlines a tension Apple must navigate carefully. Sluggish demand in mature markets due to weak upgrade incentives, combined with macroeconomic pressures in places like Japan, suggest the strong China story may be carrying too much weight. What comes next depends heavily on how well Apple can balance its product mix, timing, and pricing to reignite growth where consumers are harder to convince to switch.
