Apple is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings on Monday, November 2, marking the first full financial report conducted under CEO John Ternus, who stepped into the role earlier this fall. The report will cover results through September 26, 2026, followed by an earnings call at 5:00 pm EDT featuring both Ternus and CFO Kevan Parekh. Investors will be tuned in for insights into how recent product launches and supply challenges shaped Apple’s performance.
What the Market Expects
Analysts anticipate Apple will post revenue of approximately $113.4 billion for Q4 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) near $1.99. That would imply year-over-year revenue growth of about 10–11 percent from Q4 2025’s $102.47 billion, and a modest EPS increase over the prior year’s $1.85.
Apple set its own guidance during the Q3 2026 call for 9–11 percent revenue growth year-over-year. Analysts in the period leading up to the results expect that target will be met or slightly exceeded, driven in part by iPhone sales growing in the mid-teens, while Services revenue is expected to continue its steady, though slowing, climb.
Products, Launches, and Supply Risks
Several new Apple products were launched in late September, among them the Mac mini (M6/M5 Pro), Mac Studio (M5 Max/Ultra), iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, as well as the Apple Watch Series 12 and Watch Ultra 4. Because many of these ship dates were just weeks or days before the end of the quarter, the bulk of their sales impact may roll into Q1 2027. Products like the iPhone Duo, updated iPads, and major Macs aren’t included in this quarter’s revenue due to later releases.
A major headwind for Apple in recent quarters has been memory supply constraints. DRAM and other component shortages have driven cost increases and delayed fulfillment of hardware demand. While demand—especially for iPhone and Mac—is strong, memory prices are rising, affecting margins. Analysts expect Apple to address these pressures on both the earnings report and conference call.
Analyst Opinions & Stock Outlook
Evercore ISI sees revenues near $113 billion and EPS of ~$1.97, with iPhone growth around 14 percent. It also forecasts a gross margin close to 46.5 percent, factoring in tariff refunds and tighter cost controls.
UBS projects revenue of around $112.8 billion, with iPhone revenue near $56 billion, implying growth of roughly 14 percent. Services revenue may rise approximately 10 percent annually, though some analysts expect deceleration compared to previous quarters.
Loop Capital has taken a more cautious stance, warning that production disruptions caused by memory shortages could reduce shipments in the near term. Its lower forecast reflects concerns about tightened margins and a possible shipment pullback in the second half of 2026.
Bank of America retains a bullish rating, estimating revenue near $113 billion and EPS of about $1.97. It cautions that the upcoming December quarter could be more challenging, and that investors may be underestimating Apple’s Q3 2027 performance. Price targets within analyst coverage range from upper $300s for several firms, with some more conservative estimates below that.
Mac and iPad revenue are expected to see modest growth, while Wearables, Home & Accessories may stay flat or show marginal gains. Services should continue growing double digits, though possibly slower than recent quarters. iPad growth is viewed as a potential weak spot.
Compare to Prior Periods
In Q3 2026, Apple posted revenue of $109.4 billion — up 16 percent year-over-year — with standout growth in iPhone (21.7 percent) and Mac (28.7 percent). Services rose 12.7 percent, while iPad revenue dropped nearly 6 percent.
Q4 2025’s figures will serve as the baseline for comparison: revenue of approximately $102.5 billion, iPhone sales near $49 billion, Mac just under $9 billion, and Services around $28.75 billion.
The upcoming quarter’s guidance from Apple suggests Q4 2026 revenue in the range of $111.7-$113.7 billion, reflecting 9-11 percent growth versus Q4 2025.
EPS consensus is tightly clustered around $1.98-$2.00 according to several analyst polling sites.
What to Watch on November 2:whether Apple hits the high end of its guidance; how much margin damage has occurred from memory cost pressures; signals for the December quarter, especially given steep competition and product timing; and what John Ternus reveals about supply chain and pricing strategy under his leadership.
This report matters because:it’s Ternus’ first post-Cook full quarter, it tests Apple’s ability to navigate supply constraints, and it sets the tone for the critical holiday season. Investors will be watching for forecasts, not just backwards-looking metrics.
