Apple’s debut of the iPhone Duo marks more than just its entry into the foldable market—it may kickstart a transformation in what we expect from smartphones over the next ten years. Industry watchers believe that foldable phones could become the norm rather than the exception. What stood at around 2% of global smartphone shipments could be headed toward majority market penetration by 2036.
The Duo’s ripple effects
Foldable phones currently occupy a niche, making up just 2% of the global smartphone market. However, forecasts suggest sharp expansion ahead. Counterpoint Research projects the foldable market will grow by 24% in the remainder of 2026 and by a further 37% in 2027. Within that framework, Apple is expected to capture about 25–29% of the foldable segment in its first year of offering such a device.
Surpassing those shorter-term projections, some analysts foresee the foldable category becoming dominant in the long run. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman predicts that in ten years, foldable models will account for most new phone sales— even among budget lines like the iPhone SE—thanks to falling component costs and rising consumer demand for larger displays. The idea of a premium “Duo Max” and a foldable SE are on the table.
Challenges & hurdles ahead
Lowering costs will be essential to pushing foldables beyond flagship territory. Intricate hinge mechanisms, dual-display components, and durable materials all drive up price. For the format to reach budget-tier markets, Apple and other manufacturers will need advances in materials science and production efficiency.
Another technical challenge lies in integrating full Face ID functionality into the foldable design, especially on outer screens, without sacrificing thickness or overall device durability. These design decisions are more than cosmetic—they influence usability and consumer confidence.
What trends are emerging now
As Apple steps into this category, competitors are already accelerating innovation. Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, and others are experimenting with book-style foldables, improved craftsmanship, and more polished software experiences. Split-screen multitasking, camera previews on both internal and outer displays, and software optimized for foldable hardware are emerging as key differentiators.
Regionally, China stands out as a growing foldable market, with demand already double that of many Western markets. Early adopter enthusiasm there could serve as a proving ground for features and economies of scale. Apple is likely to monitor such trends carefully.
On timing: demand for the iPhone Duo could quickly overwhelm supply, but projections suggest Apple might ship roughly 6 million foldables in its debut year—roughly a quarter of the foldable market if those forecasts hold—making it the second-largest foldable player behind Samsung. Next year could see Apple cross the 40% mark in share of foldables sold.
These forecasts assume Apple’s hardware proves durable and its software well adapted—especially the hinge, display crease, outer screen usability, and resilience over time. Missteps in any of these areas have in the past held other foldables back from mainstream success.
Why it matters:The iPhone Duo could mark a turning point for how people interact with phones, blurring lines with tablets and laptops. As foldables mature, they challenge deep-rooted assumptions about what “pocketable” means. Over the next decade, the shape of the device may matter as much as what’s inside it. Watch for price inflection points, durability breakthroughs, and how Apple positions foldables—whether as premium curiosities or everyday essentials.
