The Looming Economic Disruption: How AI Agents Could Reshape the Global Economy
In a recent analysis, Citrini Research has projected a scenario where the rapid integration of agentic artificial intelligence (AI) into the workforce could precipitate significant economic upheaval over the next two years. This hypothetical situation envisions a future where unemployment rates have doubled, and the stock market’s total value has plummeted by over a third.
The core of Citrini’s analysis lies in a self-reinforcing cycle: as AI capabilities advance, companies require fewer human employees, leading to increased layoffs, particularly among white-collar workers. The resulting rise in unemployment diminishes consumer spending, which in turn pressures firms to invest further in AI to maintain profit margins. This cycle perpetuates itself, creating a negative feedback loop without a natural stopping point. The report describes this phenomenon as one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth.
Unlike dystopian narratives that focus on AI achieving sentience and turning against humanity, Citrini’s scenario highlights a more insidious threat: the gradual unraveling of economic structures due to the widespread adoption of AI agents. These agents, designed to perform tasks traditionally handled by humans, could replace external contractors with more cost-effective in-house AI solutions. This shift challenges existing business models that rely on optimizing transactions between companies, potentially rendering them obsolete.
The report has sparked considerable debate online. While some view it as a cautionary tale rather than a definitive forecast, pinpointing flaws in the scenario proves challenging. The plausibility of companies delegating purchasing decisions to AI agents is a contentious point. However, considering that many of these decisions are already outsourced to third-party contractors, the transition to AI-driven processes may be more feasible than it appears.
