TrendForce, a tech industry forecasting firm, is forecasting a drop in global notebook shipments next year, citing rising component prices and weakening demand. Although shipments for 2026 are holding up due to early manufacturing order pull-ins and strong CPU availability, 2027 is shaping up to be a challenging year.
Cost Pressures to Take Center Stage
The firm attributes most of the markdown in demand to climbing costs of key parts like CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs. In 2026, notes for a $900 mainstream notebook show roughly 68% of its component cost comes from those three components alone. As those parts grow more expensive, notebook makers face tough choices: either pass costs onto consumers, reducing demand; accept smaller profit margins; or cut back on spec levels, potentially making their laptops less competitive.
DRAM is flagged as particularly vulnerable, with limited supply growth expected next year—mainly due to demand from the AI sector, which could drive prices higher. NAND flash supply, in contrast, is projected to ease in the latter half of 2027 as new production capacity comes online.
Demand Likely to Lose Steam in 2027
Demand received a boost in 2026 from early purchases and replacement cycles being pulled forward. But TrendForce cautions that this pull-forward effect is temporary. As inventories of lower-cost parts are used up, consumers may hesitate to buy, especially if higher costs push retail prices upward.
The report expects notebook shipments to decline in 2027 by a low-single-digit percentage under normal cost conditions. But if costs stay elevated—especially for CPU and DRAM—the decline could steepen into the high-single-digit range.
Another factor adding uncertainty: production location. With tariffs having somewhat stabilized, manufacturers may shift more production back to China to reduce costs. TrendForce estimates that in 2025, China handled around 76% of global notebook production—a share expected to grow to 79% in 2026 and possibly exceed 80% in 2027.
2027 therefore looks like a turning point: maintaining current pricing, feature sets, and profit margins all at once could prove impossible. How much manufacturers pass costs along—and how consumers respond—will shape the severity of the decline going forward.
What This Means: Brands must decide whether to preserve margins or protect demand. Buyers could see price hikes, fewer features, or slower upgrade cycles. Internally, cost control and supply chain agility will become even more critical.
