Analyst Jeff Pu at GF Securities says the recent price boost for Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro models—set at around $100—is significantly lower than earlier predictions of $200–$250. That makes the increase “better than feared,” though Pu warns that margin pressures and underwhelming hardware upgrades could take a toll on the Pro line’s performance. Early signs around consumer demand appear mixed for the Pro models.
The iPhone Duo Effect
The iPhone Duo—a large-screen, new form factor device priced at $1,999—has emerged as a standout in this year’s lineup. Pu notes it came in on the low end of price estimates, which ranged from $2,000 to $2,500. And unlike the Pro variants, the Duo is seeing strong early interest from consumers, due in part to what he describes as Apple’s most notable design shift in years. Based on current projections, GF Securities expects Apple to ship around seven million units of the iPhone Duo by the end of the year.
Projection, Margins & Forecasts
Pu’s outlook for Apple’s Q4 2026 is cautious but not bleak. The total iPhone 18-series—Pro, Pro Max, regular models, and Duo—are expected to ship about 57 million units, with overall iPhone volume reaching approximately 76 million units. That represents a decline of around 7% compared to the same quarter last year.
Despite concerns about margin compression—especially for the Pro models—Pu gives Apple’s stock a “Hold” rating, meaning he sees limited upside in the near term. The strength of the iPhone Duo is likely to offer a counterbalance to some of the downside, provided it continues to generate buyer interest and healthy supply chain performance.
What this means:The iPhone 18 cycle appears modest. The Pro/Pro Max’s success depends heavily on how consumers receive incremental upgrades under tighter margins, while the Duo could emerge as the standout. Keep watch on future order lead times and whether the Duo’s novelty translates to sales momentum.
