Apple’s upcoming foldable model, the iPhone Duo, is anticipated to grab nearly a quarter of the global foldable smartphone market this year, according to a fresh report from market analyst TrendForce. Despite a broader dip in foldable shipments caused by rising component costs, Apple’s entry into the category could reshuffle the landscape.
Market projections and shipment estimates
TrendForce projects global foldable smartphone shipments will hit about 20.2 million units in 2026—a modest 0.5% increase over 2025. Without Apple in the picture, shipments from Android-based manufacturers are expected to drop more than 20% year over year, landing at 15.2 million units. Apple alone is forecast to ship 5 million units of the iPhone Duo, translating to a 24.8% share of the foldable segment. Huawei is predicted to move the same number of units and achieve a matching market share. Samsung remains in the lead, expected to ship 7.1 million units and hold roughly 35.1% of the market.
Design compromises and strategic moves
Apple’s approach with the Duo includes trade-offs typical in foldable phone design. The device lacks a dedicated periscope telephoto lens to help reduce thickness and save internal space. Instead, it will rely on its 48MP main camera with 2× optical-equivalent zoom. Apple is also swapping Face ID for a side-mounted Touch ID sensor, likely to streamline biometrics without adding bulk or sacrificing display real estate.
TrendForce also highlights how foldables could evolve beyond hardware—a deeper integration of AI and multitasking UI elements on large, flexible displays could transform them from novelty devices into platforms for serious productivity and intelligence-driven experiences.
In summary, even in a sluggish year for foldables overall, Apple’s entry via the iPhone Duo is expected to grab a substantial slice of the market. The 5 million units projected represent a major shift in share dynamics—especially if component cost pressures push Android vendors further into contraction.
Analysis: Apple’s strong entrance with the Duo could force Android competitors to rethink both pricing and feature strategies. The key will be execution—thin form, usable camera, resilient hinges—and whether users buy into alternative biometrics over Face ID. If the predicted 25% share materializes, Apple will not just be playing catch-up in foldables—it’ll be helping define what foldable phones are capable of in 2026 and beyond.
